What we can learn from national projections

We released today population projections for the nation overall and for all 50 states (and the District of Columbia). These are the first projections to be produced using data from the 2010 Census, and they detail changes between 2020 and 2040 in overall population and in subgroups by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin.

While many states develop state-specific projections for use in state and local-level planning, our approach applied the same methodology to all 50 state projections, allowing for a fresh analysis of how the demographics of the nation, and each of the states and D.C., may look in the future. Population trends, such as population aging and increasing diversity, are not experienced evenly across all states, and using a consistent methodology allows us to highlight variations at the state level that are missed in national-level projections.

Majority Minority by 2040?

Following the November election, much of the coverage focused on both the current and future impact of changing demographics. Changes in household structure and family formation, population aging, and increases in diversity are population trends that will continue to play out over the coming decades. Virginia’s demographic landscape, like the nation’s, is projected to shift substantially by 2040.

Population Aging and Growing Dependency

In addition to producing total population projections for 2020, 2030, and 2040 for Virginia and its localities, we also produced projections of future population by age, sex, and race, and by age, sex, and ethnicity. Today, I want to highlight the age structure of projections for the state of Virginia, with specific attention to population aging.

Population aging is occurring worldwide, as improvements in living conditions and medical care lead people to live longer, healthier lives. Not only will larger numbers of individuals be reaching older ages (65 and older) than ever before, but a rising proportion of the population will be at older ages in the future. These population changes are anticipated to have wide-ranging impacts: families may face increased caretaker demands; new businesses and services may develop to serve this large population with new and changing needs; and, in the United States and other countries, population aging has long-term implications for the economy.