If you grew up in one of Northern Virginia’s suburban counties, such as Prince William, or in any of Virginia’s metro areas, you likely grew up with the impression that growth is as certain as the seasons. For decades, many counties in Virginia have grown relentlessly, constructing thousands of homes each year to house new residents. With more residents come more schools, roads, offices and shops. Except for the hard times around the Civil War, Virginia’s population as a whole has grown continuously since it was a colony.
There is a lot of buzz amongst urbanists and demographers about millennials’ preference for urban areas. We’ve found evidence to support this narrative in some areas of Virginia, including indications that they may be staying even after having kids.
But there’s also a lot of talk about baby boomers retiring and moving into cities. Maybe this is happening in other parts of the U.S., but it’s certainly not the case in Virginia. On the contrary, they appear to be heading for the hills. In fact, despite Forbes Magazine naming Virginia its 5th best state to retire in, Virginia does not appear to attract many retirees in general.
Virginia is aging quickly, as can be seen on the map below. From 2000 to 2010, the median age in the Commonwealth rose from 35.7 to 37.5. In some localities, it rose by as many as 5 or 6 years in just that 10-year period. But most of that is due to a gradual decline in birthrates, not older people moving in. From 2000 to 2010, migration accounted for only a slight (1-2%) increase in the population of age groups around retirement age, and that increase was smaller than the state’s overall growth rate.
Local governments across the country have come under increasing fiscal strain in recent years, with several being forced to declare bankruptcy. The problems range from pension programs and decaying infrastructure to falling revenues from industrial and sales taxes as manufacturing gets offshored and shopping happens online. In Virginia, cities are further constrained by annexation laws that prevent them from expanding with their metropolitan area and gaining revenue from greenfield development or wealthier suburbs.
Meanwhile, the high mobility of Americans and increasing specialization of metro areas and cities have forced localities to behave like competitors in a market for residents and businesses, rather than as simple political entities administering a group of people. This makes it more important than ever for localities to understand which investments and spatial configurations create value and which don’t. The immediate problem is that we lack good ways of approaching the question.
Property value per acre is a good start on the revenue side. Not only is it influenced by different types of public investments that people want to be near, it’s also heavily influenced by local land use law – namely, how many people are allowed to live on a piece of land. The assessed value, which is mapped here, determines how much revenue the locality generates via property tax. That’s important because many of the costs cities have to bear are determined primarily by the amount of land they have to cover (see chart below). That means that if land is not generating enough tax value per acre, some municipal services will be subsidized by other neighborhoods. Others will simply have to be less comprehensive. For instance, fire department and emergency response times are much longer in low-density areas, simply because people are farther away from stations.
Per Capita Expenditures
(vary primarily by number of peopled that must be served)
Per Area Expenditures
(vary primarily by amount of area that must be serviced)
Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published a map of industry sectors with the highest employment by state over the past couple of decades. The map shows clearly America’s shift from manufacturing to retail to healthcare. Retail trade has led in Virginia since 1996, even as the rest of the states have been taken over by healthcare.
Like many people, I’ve been inclined to explain Virginia’s decades of explosive population growth in terms of migration and the Federal government’s expansion in Northern Virginia. While that’s certainly part of the equation, “natural increase” has actually driven most of the growth, just as it has across the country. Natural increase simply means more people are born than die in a year. Even in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, natural increase is the largest generator of population growth. But “natural increase” does not mean that we are having lots and lots of babies. In fact, it has much more to do with the fact that we had a lot of babies a while back and since then people started living a lot longer.
You hear, on this blog and elsewhere, about the “aging population,” but I wanted to show exactly what that means. Here’s the one gif you need to see to understand population growth in Virginia:
Recently, I’ve been comparing a number of traits of metropolitan areas based on distance from the core. Here I’m looking at the average densities of each metro area as you travel outwards from the center, calculated using census blocks and 2010 short-form census data. I’ve graphed them in groups of three. Cities with a strong core will have high densities on the left (near the center) that fall off as you travel outwards. Cities whose densities fall off quickly on the right have clearer edges, while those that taper off slowly are more spread out. Click on the graphs to view them full screen.
First are the three major metro areas. Note that the Northern VA graph includes only Virginia census blocks, not the rest of the DC area. Northern VA has the largest population by far, with fairly high densities even several miles into the suburbs. Richmond has the smoothest curve. I used downtown Norfolk as the core for Hampton Roads, but the area’s polycentricity is obvious.
This week, the Demographics Research Group updated its profile of Virginia’s regions. The eight regions of the Commonwealth were identified by the Demographics Research Group based on proximity, geography, demographic characteristics and shared socioeconomic conditions. While there are many shared characteristics across Virginia’s regions, our profile shows that a number of differences exist as well.
Northern Virginia stands out the most among Virginia’s regions, but this is not a new trend as Charles Grymes notes on Virginia Places:
“Northern Virginia has been “different” ever since Lord Fairfax established a land office issuing Northern Neck deeds independently from the colonial government in Williamsburg” Continue reading
Much of the news that circulates regarding the state of education is not positive, but one trend that remains underreported is the significant rise in public high school graduation rates during the past decade. By the end of this month, around 85,000 high school seniors are expected to have graduated from Virginia’s public schools.That is nearly 8,000 more than would have been expected to graduate just a few years ago.